Why Taliban cannot take over Pakistan

* For reasons of geography, ethnicity, military inferiority, and ancient rivalries, Taliban represent neither the threat often portrayed, nor the inevitable victors that the West fears


The Taliban are within 60 miles of Islamabad, it was reported. And David Kilcullen, a counter-insurgency expert, said that Pakistan could collapse within six months. US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said if the country were to fall, the Taliban would have the “keys to the nuclear arsenal”. Senator John Kerry warned: “The government has to ratchet up the urgency.”

The military has since launched a major counteroffensive that has sent nearly 3 million people fleeing their homes. Yet Pakistani analysts and officials believe that the infamous threat of an imminent Taliban takeover is overblown.

True, the Taliban threat remains serious. They maintain a presence in more than 60 percent of the northwestern Pakistan and control significant sections along the Afghan border.

But even if the current operation stalls, or the Taliban return to the areas they’ve been ousted from, a Christian Science Monitor report concludes, they may not significantly expand their footprint in the country anytime soon. For reasons of geography, ethnicity, military inferiority, and ancient rivalries, they represent neither the immediate threat that is often portrayed, nor the inevitable victors that the West fears.

“The Taliban have been able to operate in certain [mountainous areas] because of the terrain and the sympathy factor,” says Rifat Hussain of Quaid-e-Azam University. “The moment they begin to move out of the hideouts, they are exposed. If you have 100 truckloads of Taliban on the Peshawar Highway, all you need is two helicopter gunships” to wipe them out.

Coming down from the hills would also expose the Taliban to a more secular, urban world that views them as “a bunch of mountain barbarians”.

It’s a common saying these days that all Taliban are Pashtuns, but not all Pashtuns are Taliban.

The grievances that the Taliban exploit, such as unemployment and tribal feudalism, are not as prevalent even in Haripur. Lush farmland and an industrial centre support relative prosperity.

The notion of a Taliban conquest of Pakistan also bumps up against some simple arithmetic. The Taliban in Swat numbered 5,000, and the total from all factions in Pakistan is estimated in the tens of thousands, at most. The Pakistani military, meanwhile, numbers more than half a million. Until the latest counteroffensive, some analysts questioned the military’s resolve in fighting the insurgency. But the counteroffensive in Swat has convinced many that the Army is serious. The mass displacement of civilians offers grim confirmation of heavy engagement.

Karachi target killings toll reaches to 19

(Updated at: 0915 PST)

KARACHI: A slew of gun attacks and sporadic incidents of violence claimed 3 more lives in the provincial metropolis on Sunday night.

According to police sources, a man shot dead near Gol Market in Nazimabad whereas two others killed in Azizabad and Liaquatabad. The toll of target killing reaches to 19 during the past two days.

TNSM naib ameer Muhammad Alam and spokesman Ameer Izzat Khan killed in militants attack

RAWALPINDI: The naib ameer of Tahreek-e-Nifaz Shariat Muhammadi(TNSM) Maulana Muhammad Alam and spokesman Ameer Izzat Khan have been killed during clash between security forces and militants in Sakhakot on Saturday morning.

According to ISPR, a security forces convoy carrying prisoners including Maulana Muhammad Alam and Ameer Izzat Khan attacked by militants in Sakhakot. The prisoners were being shifted from Malakand to Peshawar.

A non-commissioned officer of Pakistan army has been martyred and five other personnel hurt during intense trade of fire between security forces and militants. Maulana Alam and Ameer Izzat Khan were also killed during firing.

39 Taliban arrested among IDPs

ISLAMABAD: Police have arrested 39 suspected Taliban fighters hiding among Internally Displaced persons (IDPs) from a military offensive against militants from Pakistan’s Swat Valley region, a senior officer said yesterday.
The arrests, made in the past few days, were the first of alleged militants among more than 2 million people who have fled the fighting.
Syed Akhtar Ali Shah said the 39 suspects had shaved off the beards that many conservative Muslims consider a sign of piety.
Officials had previously warned that fleeing insurgents may try to take refuge among civilians.
One dozen of the suspected Taliban were arrested in IDPs camps south of the Swat region, while the others were picked up in houses where refugees were staying with relatives or were renting, said Syed Akhtar Ali Shah, the police chief in Mardan, a town that hosts some of the roughly one dozen camps.
“These Taliban have mixed up themselves among the refugees,” Shah told a reporter by telephone.
They had cut their hair short and shaved their beards in a bid to disguise themselves from authorities and blend in with civilians, he said. Many conservative Muslims believe men should grow their hair and beards long as a sign of piety.

Mullen says Iran closer on nuclear weapons

WASHINGTON: Iran is clearly moving closer to acquiring a nuclear weapons capability but military strikes to counter the program would have serious unintended consequences, the top US military officer said yesterday.
“I think the unintended consequence of a strike against Iran right now would be incredibly serious, as well as the unintended consequences of their achieving a weapon,” Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
“That’s why this engagement, dialogue is so important,” he said in an interview, referring to President Barack Obama’s aim to engage Iran diplomatically.
Mullen said the United States would approach Iran “with all options on the table.”
Mullen said he did not believe Iran’s claims that it is developing its nuclear capabilities for peaceful purposes, but he said the aim of diplomacy would be “to really bring out whether that is how the senior leaders feels.”
“Certainly from what I’ve seen in recent years, Iran is on a path to develop nuclear weapons,” he said.

Al Qaeda planning attack on US: Obama

WASHINGTON: President Barack Obama has claimed that the al-Qaeda is planning to attack US again, maintain that the fight against the organization is a long war, reports media yesterday.
Speaking at the National Archives, which houses the US Constitution and other documents embodying America’s system of government and justice, the president promised to work with Congress to develop a safe and fair system for dealing with those Guantánamo detainees who cannot be prosecuted “yet who pose a clear danger to the American people.”
Confessing that the Guantanamo was a misguided experiment, Obama maintained that US would not release anyone from Guantanamo Bay detention center who according to him endangers US national security.
He said that harsh interrogative methods undermined US efforts to counter militancy. He said that the US must show that its values were more resilient to hate ideologies.

Obama confessed early immature decisions
WASHIGTON: U S President Barack Obama confessed that U S Government make decisions in hurry after carnage of Nine Eleven, he addressing to American Security Council.
US lost its strategy against terrorism, we are establishing new partnerships to defeat Al’Qaida, he added.

‘Pak Army is aware of internal threats’ We are capable of handling present crisis by ourselves: COAS

RAWALPINDI: Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said that Pakistan is a sovereign state and the people of Pakistan under a democratic dispensation, supported by the Army, are capable of handling the present crisis in their own national interest
He expressed these views while chairing the 118th Corps Commanders’ Conference at General Headquarters on Thursday. The conference was a part of regular monthly meeting.
In his opening remarks, the Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said that present security situation requires that all elements of national power should work in close harmony to fight the menace of terrorism and extremism. COAS said that Pakistan is a sovereign state and the people of Pakistan under a democratic dispensation, supported by the Army, are capable of handling the present crisis in their own national interest.
The participants were given a comprehensive briefing on prevailing security situation in the region. The matters of operational preparedness and professional interest were discussed in the meeting. COAS expressed his satisfaction at the standard and conduct of on going training in the filed formations as part of ‘Year of Training’.