Why Taliban cannot take over Pakistan

* For reasons of geography, ethnicity, military inferiority, and ancient rivalries, Taliban represent neither the threat often portrayed, nor the inevitable victors that the West fears


The Taliban are within 60 miles of Islamabad, it was reported. And David Kilcullen, a counter-insurgency expert, said that Pakistan could collapse within six months. US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said if the country were to fall, the Taliban would have the “keys to the nuclear arsenal”. Senator John Kerry warned: “The government has to ratchet up the urgency.”

The military has since launched a major counteroffensive that has sent nearly 3 million people fleeing their homes. Yet Pakistani analysts and officials believe that the infamous threat of an imminent Taliban takeover is overblown.

True, the Taliban threat remains serious. They maintain a presence in more than 60 percent of the northwestern Pakistan and control significant sections along the Afghan border.

But even if the current operation stalls, or the Taliban return to the areas they’ve been ousted from, a Christian Science Monitor report concludes, they may not significantly expand their footprint in the country anytime soon. For reasons of geography, ethnicity, military inferiority, and ancient rivalries, they represent neither the immediate threat that is often portrayed, nor the inevitable victors that the West fears.

“The Taliban have been able to operate in certain [mountainous areas] because of the terrain and the sympathy factor,” says Rifat Hussain of Quaid-e-Azam University. “The moment they begin to move out of the hideouts, they are exposed. If you have 100 truckloads of Taliban on the Peshawar Highway, all you need is two helicopter gunships” to wipe them out.

Coming down from the hills would also expose the Taliban to a more secular, urban world that views them as “a bunch of mountain barbarians”.

It’s a common saying these days that all Taliban are Pashtuns, but not all Pashtuns are Taliban.

The grievances that the Taliban exploit, such as unemployment and tribal feudalism, are not as prevalent even in Haripur. Lush farmland and an industrial centre support relative prosperity.

The notion of a Taliban conquest of Pakistan also bumps up against some simple arithmetic. The Taliban in Swat numbered 5,000, and the total from all factions in Pakistan is estimated in the tens of thousands, at most. The Pakistani military, meanwhile, numbers more than half a million. Until the latest counteroffensive, some analysts questioned the military’s resolve in fighting the insurgency. But the counteroffensive in Swat has convinced many that the Army is serious. The mass displacement of civilians offers grim confirmation of heavy engagement.

Google Earth Exposes Secret U.S. Drones at Pakistan Base in 2006

Despite denials from Washington and Pakistan, satellite imagery captures what appear to be three U.S. Predator drones outside a hangar at the Shamsi airbase in Pakistan's southwest.


The U.S. was secretly flying unmanned drones from the Shamsi airbase in Pakistan's southwestern province of Baluchistan as early as 2006, according to an image of the base from Google Earth, the Times of London reported Thursday.

The image -- that is no longer on the site but which was obtained by The News, Pakistan's English language daily newspaper -- shows what appear to be three Predator drones outside a hangar at the end of the runway.

The Times also obtained a copy of the image, whose coordinates confirm that it is the Shamsi airfield, also known as Bandari, about 200 miles southwest of the Pakistani city of Quetta.

The Times reported yesterday that the CIA was secretly using Shamsi to launch the Predator drones that observe and attack Al Qaeda and Taliban militants around Pakistan's border with Afghanistan.

U.S. special forces used the airbase during the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, but the Pakistani Government said in 2006 that the Americans had left and both sides have since denied repeatedly that Washington was using Pakistani bases.

Two senior U.S. defense officials told FOX News that no Predator unmanned aerial vehicles are currently or have recently been based on Pakistani territory, despite a statement by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, at a recent Congressional intelligence hearing.

However, they could use the Shamsi air base if they needed to. The base is well known to the U.S. military and was used by the Americans in 2001 and 2002 at the beginning of the war in Afghanistan.

One U.S. official told FOX News the U.S. has been flying "Predators or UAVs" in Pakistan since 2002.

There have been 30 strikes since August with 11 top leaders of Al Qaeda taken out, according to intelligence reports.

Senior officials also confirm that Pakistan has been aiding the U.S. in its Predator unmanned aerial vehicle strikes in Pakistan's tribal areas, despite its leaders very public protests that they see the strikes as a breach of sovereignty.

Both President Asif Ali Zardari and General Ashraf Kayani, the head of Pakistan's army, have turned a blind eye to the strikes. According to the officials, these two leaders have launched no protests behind the scenes to U.S. officials about the strikes.

Any public protests have been for public consumption inside Pakistan. One official, however, says that not all elements of the Pakistani government are aware of this cooperation or support it - suggesting other civilian leaders may not be onboard.

(Fox News Report)

Despite 26/11, cross border marriages are taking place

Vivek Shukla

New Delhi—Even after gory Mumbai attack of 26/11, the cross border marriages between Indian boys and Pakistani girls or vice-versa are still taking place. The divided Muslim families of cities like Delhi, Lucknow, Bhopal, Rampur, Mordabad, Aligarh, Amroha, Ujjain still don’t mind marrying their kids in Pakistan.

According to M. Ahmad of Khuda Rafiq Trust who knows the affairs of Muslims from both Delhi and UP as back of his right hand, says that even though getting citizenship for both Indians and Pakistanis in each other’s country is a huge task, still divided families are marrying their kids across the border. “ I can safely say that around 10 cross-border marriages took place during the last two months or so in Delhi, Meerut and Saharnpur alone,” says Ahmad. President of the prestigious Delhi based Indian Islamic Centre, Mr. Sirajuddin Qureshi says that as marriages between cousins are very much permitted in Islam, the divided families of the partition happily marry their kids across the border. “ Such marriages were very common after a few years of partition.

However, the number of cross border marriages have come down over the years due to various factors.

It may be recalled that when an ex-career Pakistani diplomat and former President of Pakistan Cricket Board married his son Ali to a girl from Bhopal a few years ago lots of eyebrows were raised. Many people in both India and Pakistan questioned his wisdom to find match for his son in India.

Qureshi, whose many cousin sisters are married in Pakistan, says those who question the wisdom of Khan should know that these people are doing yeoman service in their own way in order to cement the relations between the two bitter neighbours. It is said that the number of such marriages were reduced as whenever there is a chill in the relations. When things normalize, marriages start taking place with all the fanfare. Known educationist of Delhi, Maulana Umer Ilaysi says that it is true that cross border marriages are still on, but their number has gone as down compared to yesteryears. Reason? He feels that there are two major reasons for this thing to happen. First, the fast dwindling population of those elders who were divided across the border in the wake of partition. Till they were alive they used to ensure that their kids marry with each-other. As the number of those people reduced, the frequency of such marriages came down. Second, the governments in both Delhi and Islamabad are very choosy in granting citizenship to the nationals of these two countries. That is the major reason that people avoid marrying their kids across the border.

Pashtun influx fuels Karachi tensions

By Syed Shoaib Hasan

BBC News, Karachi

"We are doing our best to prevent them from taking over," says Mohammad Rafiq earnestly as he sits in the crowded room in Karachi.

He is referring to Taleban militants who have come to the city from Pakistan's tribal areas such as North and South Waziristan who "want to take over Karachi".

Rafiq, a primary school teacher, is a resident of Baldia town, a suburb of Karachi.

He is also a member of a neighbourhood, or sector, office of the MQM (United National Movement) political party for his area.

'Bully and kill'

Karachi, on the coast of Pakistan's southern Sindh province, is the country's largest city.

It is also the South Asian nation's financial capital and main port.

The MQM, which is allied to Pakistan's ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP), is politically in control of Karachi.

The party draws its strength from a mainly middle class electorate, made up of Urdu-speaking people, descendants of migrants from India after partition in 1947.

Its detractors have often complained that it has used its political strength to bully and even kill opponents.

The MQM, however, strongly denies this allegations.

"Our job is to find solutions for neighbourhood problems at the local level," says Farooq Sattar, a central government minister and senior MQM leader.

"We also inform the top leadership if there are matters here that are beyond our control."

Of late these have been primarily to do with what the MQM has called the "Talebanisation" of Karachi.

It says that more and more people are migrating to Karachi from different parts of Pakistan, especially from the tribal areas.

"The Taleban don't want to be concentrated in the northern areas and are looking for other options," says Dr Sattar.

De facto rulers

Urban experts agree, pointing out that there has also been a substantial rise in migrants into Karachi from the North West Frontier Province's Pashtun community.


It is perhaps this fact which is most galling for the MQM, which stormed into control of Karachi following ethnic riots which began in the mid-1980s.

At that time, disagreements over the identity question led to clashes between the Urdu-speaking and Pashtun-speaking communities.

The MQM rose to power on the back of these riots which left hundreds of people dead and established the party's position in Karachi.

But critics have accused the party of using the "ethnic card" to keep control over Karachi.

Ethnicity remains a touchy topic in the metropolis and since 2007 there have been rumblings of a return to the problems of before.

In November, more than 40 people were killed in two days of ethnic-related killings.

"Riots and violence did take place between 1985 and 1988, but our leaders met and reached a conclusive peace accord," says Aminullah Khattak, secretary general of the Sindh chapter of the mostly Pashtun Awami National Party (ANP).

"We wanted to end it, and it did end at that time."

'Menial activities'

But Mr Khattak now says that the issue has once again reared its head, this times he feels because of economic factors.

"The thing that has started it again is that the Pashtuns living over here have progressed economically," he says.

"Some people believe that they will remain watchmen or labourers, or remain engaged in menial economic activities all their lives.

"But they've become well educated, they've progressed economically, they want to get better jobs."

The ANP argues that "Talebanisation" is not a problem in Karachi, but just a ruse for a movement against upwardly-mobile Pashtuns.

Evidence of that movement is all too clear to Azmatullah Khan, a pharmacy student, as he stands on the ruins of his family business which was burnt to the ground in December.

"Four armed men came to the back of the market on two bikes," he says.

"They threw some kind of chemicals... and started a fire which spread if water was thrown on it.

"You can see yourselves, they only targeted Pashtun businesses," he says while bitterly pointing to nearby timber shops which remain intact and open.

"If you look at the situation in Karachi now, it is the Pashtun community which is facing the brunt of the problems," says Ismail Khan, a member of the ANP provincial executive committee.

"Pashtun areas are the least developed in terms of basic amenities, as well as facilities such as hospitals and schools.

"In addition, Pashtuns are said to be the root of all troubles."

'Taleban ideas'

Ismail Khan believes that the MQM is behind this, and its principal motive is to get Pashtuns to give up the land they hold in Karachi.


There has been a substantial rise in migrant numbers

"We are the only threat to their power, and that is why they have used the spectre of Talebanisation."

But Mohammad Rafiq and many others believe that it is the realities on the ground which have forced the MQM to move matters.

"We had no problems with the Pashtun community which has been settled here for a long time," he says.

"But we do have a problem with those who are extremists and have come here to spread Taleban ideas."

There seems little outward signs that the fundamentalist movement is taking over this most cosmopolitan of cities.

Karachi's problems remain largely ethnic despite claims by the MQM.

Pakistan's current debilitating security scenario however means that this is no less of a threat.

"Karachi remains Pakistan's jugular vein and its microcosm," says Aminullah Khattak.

"Any descent into violence here could cripple the country economically, and have grave consequences for national unity."